The issue will be GMA January 10, 2007

MIKE DEFENSOR has a fearless forecast. The May elections, he predicts, will be Round 3 of the GMA-Erap fight. "It's too early to say what our chances are, but we are confident that once the public realizes that this is all about Arroyo and Estrada, it would understand the issues more and not be carried away by the anti-GMA rhetoric."

It's a clever ploy, but it won't work. The billing of the elections as the third round between GMA and Erap is, of course, a not-too-subtle reference to the so-called "grand finale" of the Pacquiao-Morales rivalry some months ago, with its attendant associations. Pacquiao won the third match, GMA will win the third match. What can I say? The Palace spin doctors are earning their keep.

The billing of the elections as GMA vs. Erap is as well a throwback to the ploy GMA used against FPJ in 2004, which was to put the opposition on the defensive. Presidential elections normally have the incumbent as the issue: how well he or she has run the country. In the 2004 elections, the main challenger--Fernando Poe Jr.--became the issue. It was a clever ploy, and it is a testament to the paucity of talent in the opposition that it never managed to get out of that bind. To this day, I cannot fathom why it was never able to draw the voters' doubts about, if not revulsion, to GMA, given in particular that she had vowed she would not run but did, which was a character-defining moment.

That is clearly Malacañang's tack all over again: turn Erap, and not GMA, into the issue.
I must admit that isn't helped any by pictures suggesting so. Such as that group picture of the United Opposition that appeared on our pages last Saturday. That has Erap written all over it. It plays right into the administration trap.

I have suggested in several columns before that the forces opposing the current illegitimate government produce more Alan Peter Cayetanos, or indeed completely new faces, non-politicians who have done magnificently in other fields and are known to be reasonably honest, to range against the administration candidates. Good vs. Evil is always better than Evil vs. the Lesser Evil. I refuse to call it a "third force" because that suggests there are already two other (major) forces locked in contention. I propose to call it "the real opposition." I have suggested this in the past, and my only caveat to it now is that it be done fast. Really fast; the elections aren't that far away.

But even without this, I doubt that Malacañang will be able to divert the voters' attention, or indeed opprobrium, away from GMA all over again. At the very least, you see that in the lack of enthusiasm of the administration candidates being vigorously endorsed or worse--since it leaves an indelible image in the public mind--having their arms raised by their boss. It is not a gift of life, it is a kiss of death. The administration candidates might as well be saying, "We'll take the cash, never mind the credit."

There is a basic difference between the May 2004 and May 2007 elections, and it has nothing to do with the fact that the one was presidential while the other is senatorial. It has everything to do with the fact that during the May 2004 elections, GMA was still a legitimate president while after that she was not. In May 2004, despite the protestations of the Erap camp that GMA stole the crown from Erap, most Filipinos regarded GMA as the rightful president, a legitimacy bestowed upon her by a hallowed tradition, which was the tradition of People Power. After the "Hello Garci" tape, despite the protestations of the GMA camp she won the elections anyway despite that breathtaking act of fraud, most Filipinos saw GMA as having stolen the vote and wielding illegitimate power, one that has spawned the most humongous iniquities, not least of them runaway murder, in this country.

The issue of GMA's illegitimacy remains an incendiary one, and it will be the central issue in the May elections. The surveys bear that. But more than surveys, the public will have a powerful reminder of it in Virgilio Garcillano running for congressman in Bukidnon. I am one of those who truly, deeply and sincerely welcome the fact that he was cleared of any wrongdoing by the Department of Justice in the dead of Christmas, while our thoughts were turned to peace and love, and that he is running in these coming elections. It shows only the kind of justice this country might expect from its pseudo government and what the administration ticket represents in the coming elections.

I do not know if Garcillano will petition the Comelec to count any vote for "Hello" and "Garci" in his favor, but I do know that the opposition (and I truly hope it is the real opposition) will need only to produce posters or placards of Garcillano with the words "Hello Garci" to remind the voters of what these elections are all about. They are not about GMA fighting Erap, they are about GMA coddling Garci.

There is one last thing to remind voters of the issue of illegitimacy. That is that after Jan. 20 this month, GMA will be the longest-serving president in this country after 1986. Again, I have to say that the only thing that is correct about the phrase "longest-serving president" is longest: She has neither served nor is she president. After Jan. 20 GMA will be the longest occupant of Malacañang after Marcos, with the dubious distinction of never having been voted into that office. That cannot be lost on the voters this May, particularly with Garci there to drive home the point.

As in 1971, after the Plaza Miranda bombing, even a dog will win against a Malacañang candidate today, at least at the senatorial level. But the question is, can we count the votes right?

That is the biggest rub of all.

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